Blog

Seminario de investigación del IIEP
Global Banks’ Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Macro to Micro Transmission
Expositor | Santiago Camara | McGill University – Red NIE

We study the macroeconomic and microeconomic transmission of global bank credit supply shocks to Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). Using the identification strategy of Ottonello and Wong 2020, which exploits high-frequency co-movements between global banks’ net worth and credit spreads, we isolate exogenous shifts in global credit supply. Positive shocks ease financial conditions in EMEs, boosting capital inflows, domestic credit, and real activity. These effects are robust across countries, specifications, and alternative estimation methods. Using detailed administrative data from Uruguay, we show that less leveraged and more liquid banks expand lending more aggressively following global credit easing. At the firm level, borrowing responses are systematically smaller for more indebted firms, particularly those with weaker collateral or credit quality. These results suggest that financial heterogeneity shapes the international transmission of global credit supply shocks, with balance sheet strength playing a central role in determining which banks and firms benefit most from favorable global financial conditions.
Autores | Rodrigo Arnabal, Santiago Camara, Cecilia Dassatti

Lugar | FCE-UBA | Aula Olivera

Seminario de investigación del IIEP
Ideology, (Mis)Information and the Demand for Populist Anti-inflationary Policy: Evidence from Argentina

Expositor | Lucas Ronconi | UBA-CONICET, PEP & IZA

Resumen
We design and implement a novel survey experiment to analyze the demand for two starkly different anti-inflation policy alternatives in Argentina: Price controls and limits on monetary emission. Contrary to standard economic theory, we document that: (1) A large share of voters considers price controls as more or equally effective than monetary policy to reduce high-and-persistent inflation. (2) Political views and ideology are strongly correlated with this demand; while individual characteristics such as patience, income and employment status are only marginally correlated. We then expose individuals to simple and accurate economic information treatments about the links between money emissions and inflation (T1) and concentration in the retail sector (T2). Both treatments significantly increase the demand for limits on monetary emission vis-à-vis price controls. Treatment effects do not vary much across individuals with different ideology and beliefs, suggesting that the main mechanism driving the results is prompting.

Autores | Philip Keefer (Inter-American Development Bank) y Lucas Ronconi (UBA-CONICET, PEP & IZA)

Lugar | FCE-UBA | Aula Olivera

Seminario de investigación del IIEP
Carbon Policy, the Green Transition, and Inflation Dynamics

Expositora | Victoria Nuguer | ITAM

Abstract
We study the effects of carbon taxes on inflation dynamics with a focus on a margin at the core of the green transition: green technology adoption. We build a New Keynesian model with environmental externalities and an energy sector that incorporates endogenous green technology adoption in both the goods and the energy sectors. Calibrating the model to European Union data, we show that for the same carbon tax increase in the goods and energy sectors and the same sectoral emissions shares, raising the tax on emissions from the goods sector leads to a smaller reduction in emissions, a larger increase in output, and a smaller increase in headline inflation compared to raising the tax on emissions from the energy sector. Further model analysis reveals goods-producing firms’ ability to adopt green technologies plays a key role in explaining the positive output and inflation effects of carbon taxes in the goods sector in the data, with green technology adoption in the energy sector playing an out-sized role in reducing emissions. More broadly, our work highlights the importance of green technology adoption across sectors for understanding the quantitative impact of carbon taxes on output and inflation along the transition to a lower-carbon environment.

Coautora| Alan Finkelstein Shapiro | Tufts University

Sobre la expositora
Victoria Nuguer is an Assistant Professor in the Center for Economic Research (CIE) at ITAM since 2024. She was a Senior Economist at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) from May 2017 until February 2024, where she has worked on macroeconomic and financial policy issues across Latin America and the Caribbean. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Switzerland and her bachelor’s degree from the Universidad de Buenos Aires in Argentina. Her research interests lie in macroeconomics and international finance, with a focus on financial transmission mechanisms, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, and the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy. Her work has been published in leading journals such as the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics and the Review of Economic Dynamics. Prior to joining ITAM, Victoria held research positions at the Bank of Mexico and contributed extensively to policy work at the IDB.

Lugar | FCE-UBA | Aula Olivera